This study proposes an interpretable prediction framework with literature-informed fine-tuned (LIFT) LLMs for truck driving risk prediction. The framework integrates an LLM-driven Inference Core that predicts and explains truck driving risk, a Literature Processing Pipeline that filters and summarizes domain-specific literature into a literature knowledge base, and a Result Evaluator that evaluates the prediction performance as well as the interpretability of the LIFT LLM. After fine-tuning on a real-world truck driving risk dataset, the LIFT LLM achieved accurate risk prediction, outperforming benchmark models by 26.7% in recall and 10.1% in F1-score. Furthermore, guided by the literature knowledge base automatically constructed from 299 domain papers, the LIFT LLM produced variable importance ranking consistent with that derived from the benchmark model, while demonstrating robustness in interpretation results to various data sampling conditions. The LIFT LLM also identified potential risky scenarios by detecting key combination of variables in truck driving risk, which were verified by PERMANOVA tests. Finally, we demonstrated the contribution of the literature knowledge base and the fine-tuning process in the interpretability of the LIFT LLM, and discussed the potential of the LIFT LLM in data-driven knowledge discovery.

Traffic forecasting on road networks is a complex task of significant practical importance that has recently attracted considerable attention from the machine learning community, with spatiotemporal graph neural networks (GNNs) becoming the most popular approach. The proper evaluation of traffic forecasting methods requires realistic datasets, but current publicly available benchmarks have significant drawbacks, including the absence of information about road connectivity for road graph construction, limited information about road properties, and a relatively small number of road segments that falls short of real-world applications. Further, current datasets mostly contain information about intercity highways with sparsely located sensors, while city road networks arguably present a more challenging forecasting task due to much denser roads and more complex urban traffic patterns. In this work, we provide a more complete, realistic, and challenging benchmark for traffic forecasting by releasing datasets representing the road networks of two major cities, with the largest containing almost 100,000 road segments (more than a 10-fold increase relative to existing datasets). Our datasets contain rich road features and provide fine-grained data about both traffic volume and traffic speed, allowing for building more holistic traffic forecasting systems. We show that most current implementations of neural spatiotemporal models for traffic forecasting have problems scaling to datasets of our size. To overcome this issue, we propose an alternative approach to neural traffic forecasting that uses a GNN without a dedicated module for temporal sequence processing, thus achieving much better scalability, while also demonstrating stronger forecasting performance. We hope our datasets and modeling insights will serve as a valuable resource for research in traffic forecasting.

Road traffic congestion is a persistent problem. Focusing resources on the causes of congestion is a potentially efficient strategy for reducing slowdowns. We present NEXICA, an algorithm to discover which parts of the highway system tend to cause slowdowns on other parts of the highway. We use time series of road speeds as inputs to our causal discovery algorithm. Finding other algorithms inadequate, we develop a new approach that is novel in three ways. First, it concentrates on just the presence or absence of events in the time series, where an event indicates the temporal beginning of a traffic slowdown. Second, we develop a probabilistic model using maximum likelihood estimation to compute the probabilities of spontaneous and caused slowdowns between two locations on the highway. Third, we train a binary classifier to identify pairs of cause/effect locations trained on pairs of road locations where we are reasonably certain a priori of their causal connections, both positive and negative. We test our approach on six months of road speed data from 195 different highway speed sensors in the Los Angeles area, showing that our approach is superior to state-of-the-art baselines in both accuracy and computation speed.

Fine-grained traffic management and prediction are fundamental to key applications such as autonomous driving, lane change guidance, and traffic signal control. However, obtaining lane-level traffic data has become a critical bottleneck for data-driven models due to limitations in the types and number of sensors and issues with the accuracy of tracking algorithms. To address this, we propose the Fine-grained Road Traffic Inference (FRTI) task, which aims to generate more detailed lane-level traffic information using limited road data, providing a more energy-efficient and cost-effective solution for precise traffic management. This task is abstracted as the first scene of the spatio-temporal graph node generation problem. We designed a two-stage framework--RoadDiff--to solve the FRTI task. solve the FRTI task. This framework leverages the Road-Lane Correlation Autoencoder-Decoder and the Lane Diffusion Module to fully utilize the limited spatio-temporal dependencies and distribution relationships of road data to accurately infer fine-grained lane traffic states. Based on existing research, we designed several baseline models with the potential to solve the FRTI task and conducted extensive experiments on six datasets representing different road conditions to validate the effectiveness of the RoadDiff model in addressing the FRTI task. The relevant datasets and code are available at https://github.com/ShuhaoLii/RoadDiff.

Accurately estimating spatiotemporal traffic states on freeways is a significant challenge due to limited sensor deployment and potential data corruption. In this study, we propose an efficient and robust low-rank model for precise spatiotemporal traffic speed state estimation (TSE) using lowpenetration vehicle trajectory data. Leveraging traffic wave priors, an oblique grid-based matrix is first designed to transform the inherent dependencies of spatiotemporal traffic states into the algebraic low-rankness of a matrix. Then, with the enhanced traffic state low-rankness in the oblique matrix, a low-rank matrix completion method is tailored to explicitly capture spatiotemporal traffic propagation characteristics and precisely reconstruct traffic states. In addition, an anomaly-tolerant module based on a sparse matrix is developed to accommodate corrupted data input and thereby improve the TSE model robustness. Notably, driven by the understanding of traffic waves, the computational complexity of the proposed efficient method is only correlated with the problem size itself, not with dataset size and hyperparameter selection prevalent in existing studies. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, robustness, and efficiency of the proposed model. The performance of the proposed method achieves up to a 12% improvement in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) in the TSE scenarios and an 18% improvement in RMSE in the robust TSE scenarios, and it runs more than 20 times faster than the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods.

Large amounts of traffic can lead to negative effects such as increased car accidents, air pollution, and significant time wasted. Understanding traffic speeds on any given road segment can be highly beneficial for traffic management strategists seeking to reduce congestion. While recent studies have primarily focused on modeling spatial dependencies by using graph convolutional networks (GCNs) over fixed weighted graphs, the relationships between nodes are often more complex, with edges that interact dynamically. This paper addresses both the temporal patterns in traffic data and the intricate spatial dependencies by introducing the Signal-Enhanced Graph Convolutional Network Long Short Term Memory (SGCN-LSTM) model for predicting traffic speeds across road networks. Extensive experiments on the PEMS-BAY road network traffic dataset demonstrate the SGCN-LSTM model's effectiveness, yielding significant improvements in Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to benchmark models on the same dataset.

Accurately estimating data in sensor-less areas is crucial for understanding system dynamics, such as traffic state estimation and environmental monitoring. This study addresses challenges posed by sparse sensor deployment and unreliable data by framing the problem as a spatiotemporal kriging task and proposing a novel graph transformer model, Kriformer. This model estimates data at locations without sensors by mining spatial and temporal correlations, even with limited resources. Kriformer utilizes transformer architecture to enhance the model's perceptual range and solve edge information aggregation challenges, capturing spatiotemporal information effectively. A carefully constructed positional encoding module embeds the spatiotemporal features of nodes, while a sophisticated spatiotemporal attention mechanism enhances estimation accuracy. The multi-head spatial interaction attention module captures subtle spatial relationships between observed and unobserved locations. During training, a random masking strategy prompts the model to learn with partial information loss, allowing the spatiotemporal embedding and multi-head attention mechanisms to synergistically capture correlations among locations. Experimental results show that Kriformer excels in representation learning for unobserved locations, validated on two real-world traffic speed datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in spatiotemporal kriging tasks.

For traffic prediction in transportation services such as car-sharing and ride-hailing, mid-term road traffic prediction (within a few hours) is considered essential. However, the existing road-level traffic prediction has mainly studied how significantly micro traffic events propagate to the adjacent roads in terms of short-term prediction. On the other hand, recent attempts have been made to incorporate regional knowledge such as POIs, road characteristics, and real-time social events to help traffic prediction. However, these studies lack in understandings of different modalities of road-level and region-level spatio-temporal correlations and how to combine such knowledge. This paper proposes a novel method that embeds real-time region-level knowledge using POIs, satellite images, and real-time LTE access traces via a regional spatio-temporal module that consists of dynamic convolution and temporal attention, and conducts bipartite spatial transform attention to convert into road-level knowledge. Then the model ingests this embedded knowledge into a road-level attention-based prediction model. Experimental results on real-world road traffic prediction show that our model outperforms the baselines.

Traffic crashes profoundly impede traffic efficiency and pose economic challenges. Accurate prediction of post-crash traffic status provides essential information for evaluating traffic perturbations and developing effective solutions. Previous studies have established a series of deep learning models to predict post-crash traffic conditions, however, these correlation-based methods cannot accommodate the biases caused by time-varying confounders and the heterogeneous effects of crashes. The post-crash traffic prediction model needs to estimate the counterfactual traffic speed response to hypothetical crashes under various conditions, which demonstrates the necessity of understanding the causal relationship between traffic factors. Therefore, this paper presents the Marginal Structural Causal Transformer (MSCT), a novel deep learning model designed for counterfactual post-crash traffic prediction. To address the issue of time-varying confounding bias, MSCT incorporates a structure inspired by Marginal Structural Models and introduces a balanced loss function to facilitate learning of invariant causal features. The proposed model is treatment-aware, with a specific focus on comprehending and predicting traffic speed under hypothetical crash intervention strategies. In the absence of ground-truth data, a synthetic data generation procedure is proposed to emulate the causal mechanism between traffic speed, crashes, and covariates. The model is validated using both synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating that MSCT outperforms state-of-the-art models in multi-step-ahead prediction performance. This study also systematically analyzes the impact of time-varying confounding bias and dataset distribution on model performance, contributing valuable insights into counterfactual prediction for intelligent transportation systems.

Traffic flow estimation (TFE) is crucial for urban intelligent traffic systems. While traditional on-road detectors are hindered by limited coverage and high costs, cloud computing and data mining of vehicular network data, such as driving speeds and GPS coordinates, present a promising and cost-effective alternative. Furthermore, minimizing data collection can significantly reduce overhead. However, limited data can lead to inaccuracies and instability in TFE. To address this, we introduce the spatial-temporal Mamba (ST-Mamba), a deep learning model combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a Mamba framework. ST-Mamba is designed to enhance TFE accuracy and stability by effectively capturing the spatial-temporal patterns within traffic flow. Our model aims to achieve results comparable to those from extensive data sets while only utilizing minimal data. Simulations using real-world datasets have validated our model's ability to deliver precise and stable TFE across an urban landscape based on limited data, establishing a cost-efficient solution for TFE.